Economics of hope

Sometime ago, during a big economical crisis, the value of TRUST was touched, and how it stimulates economy.

Same thing can be said for PEACE and HAPPINESS. It is logical, right, that if in a place people is peaceful and happy, then naturally economy blossoms and grows. After all, instead of the basic needs that moves economy in other regions, in these areas economy will be moved with that force of innovation and a natural sense of keeping things as they are; after all, they are great!

I was also thinking of the value of HOPE and its influence in economy. I come from Brazil and since I was a child, there has always been a general hope that, one day, that country would be a rich place to live. Different than other countries, most of those who are poor are taught to work hard and to look for opportunities in life. Slowly, that started to pay back and now it is a place with all the possibilities of becoming one of the next superpowers in the new emerging order.

But more than work, Brazilians have been a people with hope. I still remember my mother coming from her work, about 1 am everyday, and how she would express her desire of one day have her own place. When we were able to move out from her parents' house to a very small flat, she couldn't stop expressing her happiness. And like her, many mothers and fathers had the same dream and were able to make it true.

The system to get a house when you don't have much money and credits are not easy is a very cruel one, as the person pays much and much more for their home. But that home comes... In other countries, instead of counting with the blessing of being able to have a place, they prefer to complain and protest.

Hope makes people more open to opportunities life gives everyone. Those without hope don't take the opportunity as it is often an expensive one, even though it is affordable. Hope makes people sacrifice small or big pleasures because it gives people the big picture, and they go for it.

Very few people realize how powerful this economy engine, hope is. I do hope you can use it well.

China or India? Brazil?

The issue still appears in magazines such as The Economist, or in the head of thinkers and philosophers. It hasn't come to the main stream, but if you do not know China will be the future superpower.

Or not?

In the twilight of the world, almost completely dominated by the United States, we see the deep division in the economy and society in that country, affecting the entire planet. In fact, when Obama's victory came, some newspapers around the world spoke of Disunited States of America...

That fall, associated with the Europe's fall, is creating an interesting effect similar to what we hear of the ancients on the void: nature always tries to fill it. Several countries have emerged to fill the position of superpower.

My question is: do we need a superpower? In a social context, naturally people are always looking for a leader. In a global context, so do countries. A leading country - power or superpower - helps the world to have a clearer vision of where to go, and interferes other countries' decisions with the power of its economy, society, or, in the past, weapons. I think we probably do not need a superpower, especially with the development of information and communication, which makes the world smaller. However, it seems natural that a country has more force at the time of decision making than others. If it's good or bad, I do not think it is realistic to discuss that.

In the process we live, watching the mighty fall and the rise of their replacements, it is good to look at recent history, at Germany and the UK, powers of the past, and we see they still have a lot of power. Even with the U.S. (or DSA ...) fall, we will continue to wear their fashion, see their movies and English will remain the lingua franca for a while.

Successors?? Well, what is observed is that some countries do not seem to be in the race anymore. Russia certainly has a status similar to that of the UK and Germany. Mexico and Chile lost their golden opportunity in the past for various reasons (the first for obvious "attachment" to the U.S. economy in decline, the second for not opening up more to the globe), the same happening with Israel and Arab countries, mostly for its endless conflicts. Canada does not seem to have much interest in the subject and Australia is a bit like Canada and Chile.

So we have the group dubbed Brics: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Russia, as we said before, is in another status, having enjoyed its time as a superpower. South Africa has failed to reinvest the legacy of Mandela (and some time ago, the Brics was renamed simply BRIC), so we are left with something that would be the CIB.

China certainly has a great advantage and the world is betting on its leadership. There is the unspoken hope that the pressure of the economy and society makes the current regime changing, the dragon's most important Achilles heel. And there are several heels. Much of their economy comes from cheaper products whose quality has improved over the years, reminding us of Japan and other Asian tigers. But, the Chinese worker does not receive generally a good salary, not even good quality of life. If economy changes are not made as soon as possible, at some point China will be obliged to raise wages, which will raise the value of products and force the world to find new suppliers, causing a decline in its economy and power.

India?? The big advantage is that India is where China may come a day, with wages increasing more and more, as well as products. A friend told me you could have coffee at the airport for about 20 rupees, and today, the value amounted to more than Rs.100, reflected in the quality of life of the worker who sells it. While China was growing enormously, India was learning to better redistribute wealth. It is far from ideal, but at nearly 30 years of travel to that country, I can see less poverty, more middle class and greater capacity for growth.

Brazil will have to break free from its informality. We, Brazilians, say sometimes that Brazil tends to lose the championship because while other countries teams are superconcentrated the night before, Brazilians are out to have fun ... I find it will be hard for Brazil to reach a superpower level, because it will require profound cultural change. Most likely assume its position in Latin America - a lost boat after USA withdraw and barely maintained in part by Mexico and Venezuela - and help this cluster of countries to negotiate a better position.

If you think about the future, you should learn Mandarin, start doing business with India (assuming you are already in business with China) and invest more in the "green giant" South American, not just going there for vacations or conferences.

The inversion of the poles

As we come closer and closer to 2012, all the "end of the world" prophets start to awake from their slumber. One of the prophecies of the end of times is related to the inversion of the (magnetic) poles, which would cause a tremendous catastrophe.

Will that happen or not? It really doesn't matter, because, guess what, it is ALREADY HAPPENING!

Didn't you know? Let me see... I was just checking some news from Brazil, related to foreigners whose residence have been approved. For years, Brazilians have been a migratory people. We have been able to blend with other cultures, learning their language and way of lives in a very easy way. One of the main destinations have been Portugal, for obvious reasons starting from language and the fact that most of us have met Portuguese people, neighbors and shopkeepers, at some point in our lives, so we know a bit of the culture. Well, the poles are inverted... Portuguese is the main nationality in terms of requiring immigration status in Brazil now.

Not only that. While Spain, a traditional destination for Spanish-speaking countries like my home, Colombia, is in very bad shape, Latinamerica in general is getting better and better. So, just wait and see: those who have migrated to Spain are already coming back and in less than one year, Spaniards will start to migrate to our much warmer countries. Just a guess, but probably countries like Argentina, Peru and possibly Colombia will be a nice destination for them.

So, what to do? I think the wise thing for those of the first world is starting to learn a bit from the emergent countries on how to cope with the crisis.

The main challenge is probably the fact we ourselves do not understand exactly how we did it. For instance, everyday there are bad and good news about crisis in USA. So... if they are in crisis, only bad news should come from there, right? NO! During our worst crisis period, some parts of the economy were still growing.

It was remarkable how airports were full during periods of worse crisis in Colombia and Brazil. Perhaps, one sign was that there was few foreigners, mostly were native and flights leaving the country were full, whilst flying coming to the country were almost empty. But, crisis do not mean NOTHING IS HAPPENING. Crisis is there, but the money is also there, only it is in the, let's say, "wrong places".

Another example a friend of mine was giving me is related to the growth of make-up companies. He was saying on how during the worst crisis, Yanbal, one of the big companies in Latinamerica, has grown and he had the opportunity to train them. Asked why was that, he simply answered people were looking for jobs, so they needed to look beautiful.

The last thing is how we were able to overcome desperation. Religion and spirituality had lots of influence in that. During crisis, people not only prayed more, but they were more detached from material things and they were giving importance to the imperishable.

These small lessons will help those countries during these hard times, at least to understand what is going on. It will help those peoples to have a different approach towards life, more spiritual, more humane.