China or India? Brazil?

The issue still appears in magazines such as The Economist, or in the head of thinkers and philosophers. It hasn't come to the main stream, but if you do not know China will be the future superpower.

Or not?

In the twilight of the world, almost completely dominated by the United States, we see the deep division in the economy and society in that country, affecting the entire planet. In fact, when Obama's victory came, some newspapers around the world spoke of Disunited States of America...

That fall, associated with the Europe's fall, is creating an interesting effect similar to what we hear of the ancients on the void: nature always tries to fill it. Several countries have emerged to fill the position of superpower.

My question is: do we need a superpower? In a social context, naturally people are always looking for a leader. In a global context, so do countries. A leading country - power or superpower - helps the world to have a clearer vision of where to go, and interferes other countries' decisions with the power of its economy, society, or, in the past, weapons. I think we probably do not need a superpower, especially with the development of information and communication, which makes the world smaller. However, it seems natural that a country has more force at the time of decision making than others. If it's good or bad, I do not think it is realistic to discuss that.

In the process we live, watching the mighty fall and the rise of their replacements, it is good to look at recent history, at Germany and the UK, powers of the past, and we see they still have a lot of power. Even with the U.S. (or DSA ...) fall, we will continue to wear their fashion, see their movies and English will remain the lingua franca for a while.

Successors?? Well, what is observed is that some countries do not seem to be in the race anymore. Russia certainly has a status similar to that of the UK and Germany. Mexico and Chile lost their golden opportunity in the past for various reasons (the first for obvious "attachment" to the U.S. economy in decline, the second for not opening up more to the globe), the same happening with Israel and Arab countries, mostly for its endless conflicts. Canada does not seem to have much interest in the subject and Australia is a bit like Canada and Chile.

So we have the group dubbed Brics: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Russia, as we said before, is in another status, having enjoyed its time as a superpower. South Africa has failed to reinvest the legacy of Mandela (and some time ago, the Brics was renamed simply BRIC), so we are left with something that would be the CIB.

China certainly has a great advantage and the world is betting on its leadership. There is the unspoken hope that the pressure of the economy and society makes the current regime changing, the dragon's most important Achilles heel. And there are several heels. Much of their economy comes from cheaper products whose quality has improved over the years, reminding us of Japan and other Asian tigers. But, the Chinese worker does not receive generally a good salary, not even good quality of life. If economy changes are not made as soon as possible, at some point China will be obliged to raise wages, which will raise the value of products and force the world to find new suppliers, causing a decline in its economy and power.

India?? The big advantage is that India is where China may come a day, with wages increasing more and more, as well as products. A friend told me you could have coffee at the airport for about 20 rupees, and today, the value amounted to more than Rs.100, reflected in the quality of life of the worker who sells it. While China was growing enormously, India was learning to better redistribute wealth. It is far from ideal, but at nearly 30 years of travel to that country, I can see less poverty, more middle class and greater capacity for growth.

Brazil will have to break free from its informality. We, Brazilians, say sometimes that Brazil tends to lose the championship because while other countries teams are superconcentrated the night before, Brazilians are out to have fun ... I find it will be hard for Brazil to reach a superpower level, because it will require profound cultural change. Most likely assume its position in Latin America - a lost boat after USA withdraw and barely maintained in part by Mexico and Venezuela - and help this cluster of countries to negotiate a better position.

If you think about the future, you should learn Mandarin, start doing business with India (assuming you are already in business with China) and invest more in the "green giant" South American, not just going there for vacations or conferences.